Definición de los factores que determinan el precio de exportación de la celulosa química chilena
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Archivos
Fecha
2017
Autores
Profesor/a Guía
Facultad/escuela
Idioma
es
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Universidad Andrés Bello
Nombre de Curso
Licencia CC
Licencia CC
Resumen
La industria forestal representa un rol determinante en la economía chilena, debido a que es el segundo sector
exportador después de la minería y es el primero basado en un recurso natural renovable y sustentable. Con
exportaciones equivalentes a US$5.271 millones en el año 2016, de productos de alto valor agregado.
En esta industria, el producto con mayor nivel de demanda es la celulosa química, que representa en promedio
el 44% de las exportaciones totales del sector. Sin embargo, este commodity a diferencia de otros no es
transado en una bolsa de valores, por lo que sus precios tienen la característica natural de ser cíclico. Y es esta
volatilidad, la que refleja los grandes desafíos que debe enfrentar Chile para fortalecer el rol que ocupa el país
como exportador.
Por consiguiente, este documento propone las principales variables que predicen consistentemente la
evolución de los precios de este commodity. Entre las que puede mencionar: tipo de cambio nominal, PIB de
los principales países importadores, demanda interna y de exportación, oferta interna y de exportación,
volúmenes de producción de celulosa y papel, capacidad de las plantas productivas, costos de producción,
entre otros.
The forestry industry has a determining role in the Chilean economy, since it is the second most important export field after mining; and is the most important one based on a renewable and sustainable natural resource. Its exports of products of high added value were equivalent to US $ 5,271 million in 2016. In this industry, the product with the highest demand is chemical cellulose, which - on average - represents 44% of the field’s total exports. However, this commodity - unlike others - is not traded as a stock exchange, which is the reason why its prices have the natural characteristic of being cyclical. And it is this volatility, which reflects the great challenges that Chile must face in order to strengthen the role of the country as an exporter. Therefore, this document proposes the main variables that consistently predict the evolution of the prices of this commodity. Among those, the following can be mentioned: nominal exchange rate, GDP of the main importing countries, domestic and international demand, domestic and international supply, pulp and paper production volumes, production capacity of plants, and production costs, among others
The forestry industry has a determining role in the Chilean economy, since it is the second most important export field after mining; and is the most important one based on a renewable and sustainable natural resource. Its exports of products of high added value were equivalent to US $ 5,271 million in 2016. In this industry, the product with the highest demand is chemical cellulose, which - on average - represents 44% of the field’s total exports. However, this commodity - unlike others - is not traded as a stock exchange, which is the reason why its prices have the natural characteristic of being cyclical. And it is this volatility, which reflects the great challenges that Chile must face in order to strengthen the role of the country as an exporter. Therefore, this document proposes the main variables that consistently predict the evolution of the prices of this commodity. Among those, the following can be mentioned: nominal exchange rate, GDP of the main importing countries, domestic and international demand, domestic and international supply, pulp and paper production volumes, production capacity of plants, and production costs, among others
Notas
Memoria (Ingeniero Civil Industrial)
Palabras clave
Celulosa Química, Precios, Exportaciones, Chile