Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19

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Miniatura
Fecha
2020-12
Profesor/a Guía
Facultad/escuela
Idioma
en
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Frontiers Media S.A.
Nombre de Curso
Licencia CC
Licencia CC
Resumen
In the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, policymakers need real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters. The Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) represents the number of secondary infections generated per each case and can be dramatically modified by applying effective interventions. However, current methodologies to calculate Rt from data remain somewhat cumbersome, thus raising a barrier between its timely calculation and application by policymakers. In this work, we provide a simple mathematical formulation for obtaining the effective reproduction number in real-time using only and directly daily official case reports, obtained by modifying the equations describing the viral spread. We numerically explore the accuracy and limitations of the proposed methodology, which was demonstrated to provide accurate, timely, and intuitive results. We illustrate the use of our methodology to study the evolution of the pandemic in different iconic countries, and to assess the efficacy and promptness of different public health interventions. © Copyright © 2020 Contreras, Villavicencio, Medina-Ortiz, Saavedra and Olivera-Nappa. Author keywords
Notas
Indexación Scopus
Palabras clave
ARIMA, Mathematical Modeling, COVID-19, Effective reproduction number R., Epidemiologic modeling, Public-health policies, SARS-CoV-2
Citación
Frontiers in Public Health, Open Access, Volume 822 December 2020 Article number 556689
DOI
10.3389/fpubh.2020.556689
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