Landscape dependency of land-based salmon farming under climate change
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Fecha
2023-01
Profesor/a Guía
Facultad/escuela
Idioma
en
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Editor
Elsevier B.V.
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Licencia CC
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Deed (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)
Licencia CC
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Resumen
The success of Chilean salmon farming's early cultivation stages is largely facilitated by access to high-quality water, which is provisioned by watersheds dominated by native forests and defined by high precipitation levels. In recent decades, human activities have increasingly affected both attributes. This study analyzed the risk of climate change in 123 watersheds that supply water to land-based salmon farms in south-central Chile (36.5−43°S). The risk was calculated based on exposure (fingerling and smolt production), sensitivity (land cover maps for three time periods), and hazard indicators (four climate change indicators). The results show a disturbing reality: under a high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), more than 50% of the current fingerling and smolts production would be located in high or very high-risk areas. These projections are the result of both a drier and warmer climate as well as the continued processes of deforestation and fragmentation of native forests, a spatio-temporal combination which could limit the availability and quality of the water needed for optimal aquaculture production. The risk analysis suggests that landscape configuration may be a potential alternative to mitigate the consequences of climate change on Chilean salmon farming. This is particularly important in areas such as south-central Chile, where the current watershed management and/or conservation strategies do not ensure landscapes resilient to projected hydroclimatic changes. © 2023 The Author(s)
Notas
Indexación: Scopus
This work was supported by ANID - FONDECYT grant 1221102 “Hydrological signature influence on Chilean Aquaculture under climate change and landscape scenarios”, and the Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research (FONDAP INCAR 1522A0004, ANID). We thank i) SERNAPESCA for facilitating the geographic and productive information of the land-based farms; ii) LEP-UDEC for providing the land use-cover scenes for the years 1986 and 2011; and iii) Climate Change Risk Maps project for the values of climate hazards.
This work was supported by ANID - FONDECYT grant 1221102 “Hydrological signature influence on Chilean Aquaculture under climate change and landscape scenarios”, and the Interdisciplinary Center for Aquaculture Research (FONDAP INCAR 1522A0004, ANID). We thank i) SERNAPESCA for facilitating the geographic and productive information of the land-based farms; ii) LEP-UDEC for providing the land use-cover scenes for the years 1986 and 2011; and iii) Climate Change Risk Maps project for the values of climate hazards.
Palabras clave
Chile, Climate Change, Land Cover Change, Risk Analysis, Salmon Farming, Watersheds,
Citación
Climate Risk Management. Volume 40. January 2023. Article number 100504
DOI
10.1016/j.crm.2023.100504