Which curve provides the best explanation of the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile?

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dc.contributor.authorDíaz-Narváez, V.
dc.contributor.authorSan-Martín-roldán, D.
dc.contributor.authorCalzadilla-Núñez, A.
dc.contributor.authorSan-Martín-roldán, P.
dc.contributor.authorParody-Muñoz, A.
dc.contributor.authorRobledo-Veloso, G.
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-08T13:48:49Z
dc.date.available2021-09-08T13:48:49Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionIndexación: Scopus.es
dc.description.abstractObjective: to explore the best type of curve or trend model that could explain the epidemiological behavior of the infection by COVID-19 and derive the possible causes that contribute to explain the corresponding model and the health implications that can be inferred. Method: data were collected from the COVID-19 reports of the Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Chile. Curve adjustment studies were developed with the data in four different models: quadratic, exponential, simple exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing. The significance level used was α≤0.05. Results: the curve that best fits the evolution of the accumulated confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Chile is the doubly-smoothed exponential curve. Conclusion: the number of infected patients will continue to increase. Chile needs to remain vigilant and adjust the strategies around the prevention and control measures. The behavior of the population plays a fundamental role. We suggest not relaxing restrictions and further improving epidemiological surveillance. Emergency preparations are needed and more resource elements need to be added to the current health support. This prediction is provisional and depends on keeping all intervening variables constant. Any alteration will modify the prediction.es
dc.description.urihttps://www.scielo.br/j/rlae/a/S33463KTxp6yymPpW3Swhzw/?lang=en
dc.identifier.citationRevista Latino-Americana de Enfermagem, Volume 28, Pages 1 - 9, 2020, Article number e3346es
dc.identifier.doiDOI: 10.1590/1518-8345.4493.3346
dc.identifier.issn0104-1169
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.unab.cl/xmlui/handle/ria/20166
dc.language.isoenes
dc.publisherUniversity of Sao Paulo, Ribeirao Preto College of Nursing Organisationes
dc.rights.licenseAttribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)
dc.subject2019-nCoVes
dc.subjectCoronaviruses
dc.subjectCoronavirus Infectionses
dc.subjectCOVID-19es
dc.subjectEpidemiologyes
dc.subjectPandemicses
dc.subjectRadiological Findingses
dc.subjectClinical Featureses
dc.titleWhich curve provides the best explanation of the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile?es
dc.title.alternativeQual é a curva que melhor explica o crescimento de casos confirmados da COVID-19 no Chile?es
dc.title.alternative¿Cuál es la curva que mejor explica el crecimiento de los casos confirmados de COVID-19 en Chile?es
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