Propuesta de una herramienta capaz de estimar la probabilidad de exceder el caudal producido en la tormenta del 24 al 26 de marzo del año 2015 en la cuenca del Río El Salado
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Fecha
2022
Profesor/a Guía
Facultad/escuela
Idioma
es
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Universidad Andrés Bello
Nombre de Curso
Licencia CC
Licencia CC
Resumen
Este documento propone una herramienta que pueda ayudar a la toma de decisiones en
caso de catástrofes relacionadas a las fuertes lluvias que puedan producirse, este trabajo se
enfoca en la cuenca del río El Salado, particularmente debido al aluvión ocurrido en marzo del
año 2015 durante las lluvias del invierno altiplánico, en donde muchos hogares fueron anegados
y la ciudad dividida en dos. Se realizó un estudio hidrológico de la cuenca, obteniendo parámetros
físicos y registros de precipitaciones, para generar miles de posibles distribuciones de
precipitación, totalmente aleatorias y con ello se estimó la probabilidad de que, para una lluvia
asociada a un periodo de retorno determinado, pueda producirse un caudal que pueda resultar
en un desastre utilizando como caudal umbral, el caudal estimado del aluvión del año 2015 en
Chañaral. Se utilizó el modelo ARMA para generar hietogramas de manera sintética y aleatoria
que, más adelante, utilizando el método del HUS, hietogramas de precipitación efectiva y
propagación de Muskingum, se tradujeron en caudales máximos posibles para lluvias asociadas
a distintos periodos de retorno y con distintas duraciones de tormenta. Finalmente, con los
caudales máximos generados sintéticamente, se calculó la probabilidad de superar el caudal
umbral definido generando 30 mil episodios completamente aleatorios, correlacionando las
distintas variables: periodo de retorno de la lluvia, duración de la lluvia y probabilidad de superar
el caudal umbral. Esto fue graficado de manera que, conociendo el volumen pronosticado de una
precipitación, se pueda asociar a un periodo de retorno y estimar la probabilidad de superar el
caudal umbral.
This document proposes a tool that can help decision-making in case of catastrophes related to heavy rains that may occur, this work focuses on the El Salado river basin, particularly due to the alluvium that occurred in March 2015 during the highland winter rains, where many homes were flooded and the city was divided in two. A hydrological study of the basin was carried out, obtaining physical parameters and precipitation records, to generate thousands of possible distributions of precipitation, totally random, and with this, for a rainfall associated with a given return period, the probability of producing a flow that could result in a disaster could be estimated, using as a threshold flow, the estimated flow of the 2015’s alluvium in Chañaral. The ARMA model was used to generate hyetograms in a synthetic and random way that, later, using the HUS method, hyetograms of effective precipitation and propagation of Muskingum, were translated into maximum possible flows for rainfall associated with different return periods and with different storm durations. Finally, with the synthetically generated maximum flows, the probability of exceeding the defined threshold flow was calculated, generating 30,000 completely random episodes, correlating the different variables: rainfall return period, rainfall duration and probability of exceeding the threshold flow. This was graphed so that, knowing the predicted volume of precipitation, it can be associated with a return period and the probability of exceeding the threshold flow can be estimated.
This document proposes a tool that can help decision-making in case of catastrophes related to heavy rains that may occur, this work focuses on the El Salado river basin, particularly due to the alluvium that occurred in March 2015 during the highland winter rains, where many homes were flooded and the city was divided in two. A hydrological study of the basin was carried out, obtaining physical parameters and precipitation records, to generate thousands of possible distributions of precipitation, totally random, and with this, for a rainfall associated with a given return period, the probability of producing a flow that could result in a disaster could be estimated, using as a threshold flow, the estimated flow of the 2015’s alluvium in Chañaral. The ARMA model was used to generate hyetograms in a synthetic and random way that, later, using the HUS method, hyetograms of effective precipitation and propagation of Muskingum, were translated into maximum possible flows for rainfall associated with different return periods and with different storm durations. Finally, with the synthetically generated maximum flows, the probability of exceeding the defined threshold flow was calculated, generating 30,000 completely random episodes, correlating the different variables: rainfall return period, rainfall duration and probability of exceeding the threshold flow. This was graphed so that, knowing the predicted volume of precipitation, it can be associated with a return period and the probability of exceeding the threshold flow can be estimated.
Notas
Proyecto de título (Ingeniero Civil)
Palabras clave
Inundaciones, Métodos de Simulación, Caudales, Mediciones, Pronósticos Hidrológicos