Efectos del cambio climático en la evolución de los niveles de agua de Lago Ranco
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2022
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es
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Universidad Andrés Bello
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Licencia CC
Resumen
El cambio climático es un tema que cada vez cobra más importancia en el mundo actual, esto
debido a que se generan múltiples consecuencias negativas que a largo plazo pueden ser irreversibles. Es
por esto que es muy importante tomar medidas tempranas que permitan asegurar y mejorar el futuro del
planeta.
Esta investigación se centra en el lago Ranco, XIV región de Chile, y busca conocer la evolución de los
niveles de agua en el lago debido al cambio climático, específicamente para los escenarios RCP 2.6 y
RCP 8.5, y a su vez para periodos de futuro cercano (FC), futuro intermedio (FI) y futuro lejano (FL)
utilizando la plataforma de simulación climática del CR2 (Center for Climate and Resilience Research)
para obtener así las series temporales futuras de precipitación, evaporación y caudales afluentes al lago
Ranco. Con estos datos se calcula el hidrograma de entrada y se determina el balance hídrico de futuro
del lago aplicando el método de PULS, mediante el cual se logra obtener el hidrograma de salida del
lago. Con lo anterior se obtiene la variación de volumen de agua y con esta información se obtiene la
proyección del comportamiento en el tiempo futuro de los niveles de agua del lago Ranco.
Una de las variables importantes a considerar es el caudal subterráneo futuro del lago, esta información
es desconocida por lo que previo a aplicar el método de PULS se calibra el modelo de balance hídrico
del lago utilizando series temporales históricas de precipitación, evaporación, caudales efluentes y
afluentes al lago Ranco, obtenidas desde la base de datos de la DGA (Dirección General de Aguas) y
desde el explorador de cuencas CAMELS del CR2, de igual forma se utilizan los niveles de agua históricos
en el lago para obtener la variación de almacenamiento en este. Con estos datos se aplica la ecuación de
balance hídrico histórico del lago, obteniendo así la serie temporal del caudal subterráneo, pero para
conocer cómo se comporta esta serie temporal en el futuro, se determina un patrón de comportamiento
mediante índice estacional y tendencia con regresión lineal, utilizando el promedio móvil anual y con este
patrón se genera una proyección de dicho caudal para los periodos de FC, FI y FL.
Como resultado y conclusión de esta investigación se observa que para el escenario RCP 2.6, en el periodo
futuro cercano (FC), el nivel aumenta equivalente a un volumen de 6,54 millones de m3. Para el escenario
RCP 8.5, en los periodos FC, FI y FL (2020 al 2094), el nivel decrece en 10,8 cm, lo que equivale a una
disminución del volumen de 49,04 millones de m3 en ese periodo.
Climate change is an issue that is becoming increasingly important in today's world, due to the fact that multiple negative consequences are generated that in the long term may be irreversible. This is why it is very important to take early measures to ensure and improve the future of the planet. This research focuses on Lake Ranco, XIV region of Chile, and seeks to know the evolution of water levels in the lake due to climate change, specifically for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and in turn for periods of near future (FC), intermediate future (FI) and far future (FL) using the climate simulation platform of the CR2 (Center for Climate and Resilience Research) to obtain future time series of precipitation, evaporation and tributary flows to Lake Ranco. With these data, the input hydrograph is calculated and the future water balance of the lake is determined by applying the PULS method, through which it is possible to obtain the output hydrograph of the lake. With the above, the variation in water volume is obtained and with this information, the projection of the behavior of the water levels of Lake Ranco is obtained. One of the important variables to consider is the future groundwater flow of the lake, this information is unknown, so prior to applying the PULS method, the water balance model of the lake is calibrated using historical time series of precipitation, evaporation, effluent flows and tributaries to Lake Ranco, obtained from the DGA (General Water Directorate) database and from the CAMELS basin explorer of CR2, in the same way the historical water levels in the lake are used to obtain the storage variation in East. With these data, the historical water balance equation of the lake is applied, thus obtaining the time series of the groundwater flow, but to know how this time series behaves in the future, a behavior pattern is determined using a seasonal index and trend with linear regression, using the annual moving average and with this pattern a projection of said flow is generated for the periods of FC, FI and FL. As a result and conclusion of this investigation, it is observed that for the RCP 2.6 scenario, in the near future period (FC), the level increases equivalent to a volume of 6.54 million m3. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, in the FC, FI and FL periods (2020 to 2094), the level decreases by 10.8 cm, which is equivalent to a volume decrease of 49.04 million m3 in that period.
Climate change is an issue that is becoming increasingly important in today's world, due to the fact that multiple negative consequences are generated that in the long term may be irreversible. This is why it is very important to take early measures to ensure and improve the future of the planet. This research focuses on Lake Ranco, XIV region of Chile, and seeks to know the evolution of water levels in the lake due to climate change, specifically for the RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, and in turn for periods of near future (FC), intermediate future (FI) and far future (FL) using the climate simulation platform of the CR2 (Center for Climate and Resilience Research) to obtain future time series of precipitation, evaporation and tributary flows to Lake Ranco. With these data, the input hydrograph is calculated and the future water balance of the lake is determined by applying the PULS method, through which it is possible to obtain the output hydrograph of the lake. With the above, the variation in water volume is obtained and with this information, the projection of the behavior of the water levels of Lake Ranco is obtained. One of the important variables to consider is the future groundwater flow of the lake, this information is unknown, so prior to applying the PULS method, the water balance model of the lake is calibrated using historical time series of precipitation, evaporation, effluent flows and tributaries to Lake Ranco, obtained from the DGA (General Water Directorate) database and from the CAMELS basin explorer of CR2, in the same way the historical water levels in the lake are used to obtain the storage variation in East. With these data, the historical water balance equation of the lake is applied, thus obtaining the time series of the groundwater flow, but to know how this time series behaves in the future, a behavior pattern is determined using a seasonal index and trend with linear regression, using the annual moving average and with this pattern a projection of said flow is generated for the periods of FC, FI and FL. As a result and conclusion of this investigation, it is observed that for the RCP 2.6 scenario, in the near future period (FC), the level increases equivalent to a volume of 6.54 million m3. For the RCP 8.5 scenario, in the FC, FI and FL periods (2020 to 2094), the level decreases by 10.8 cm, which is equivalent to a volume decrease of 49.04 million m3 in that period.
Notas
Proyecto de Título (Ingeniero Civil)
Palabras clave
Recursos Hidrológicos, Chile, Lago Ranco, Conservación del Agua, Cambios Climáticos