Real-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19

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dc.contributor.authorContreras S.
dc.contributor.authorVillavicencio H.A.
dc.contributor.authorMedina-Ortiz D.
dc.contributor.authorSaavedra C.P.
dc.contributor.authorOlivera-Nappa Á.
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-30T00:50:05Z
dc.date.available2021-07-30T00:50:05Z
dc.date.issued2020-12
dc.descriptionIndexación Scopuses
dc.description.abstractIn the absence of a consensus protocol to slow down the spread of SARS-CoV-2, policymakers need real-time indicators to support decisions in public health matters. The Effective Reproduction Number (Rt) represents the number of secondary infections generated per each case and can be dramatically modified by applying effective interventions. However, current methodologies to calculate Rt from data remain somewhat cumbersome, thus raising a barrier between its timely calculation and application by policymakers. In this work, we provide a simple mathematical formulation for obtaining the effective reproduction number in real-time using only and directly daily official case reports, obtained by modifying the equations describing the viral spread. We numerically explore the accuracy and limitations of the proposed methodology, which was demonstrated to provide accurate, timely, and intuitive results. We illustrate the use of our methodology to study the evolution of the pandemic in different iconic countries, and to assess the efficacy and promptness of different public health interventions. © Copyright © 2020 Contreras, Villavicencio, Medina-Ortiz, Saavedra and Olivera-Nappa. Author keywordses
dc.description.urihttps://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.556689/full
dc.identifier.citationFrontiers in Public Health, Open Access, Volume 822 December 2020 Article number 556689es
dc.identifier.doi10.3389/fpubh.2020.556689
dc.identifier.issn22962565
dc.identifier.urihttp://repositorio.unab.cl/xmlui/handle/ria/19575
dc.language.isoenes
dc.publisherFrontiers Media S.A.es
dc.subjectARIMAes
dc.subjectMathematical Modelinges
dc.subjectCOVID-19es
dc.subjectEffective reproduction number R.es
dc.subjectEpidemiologic modelinges
dc.subjectPublic-health policieses
dc.subjectSARS-CoV-2es
dc.titleReal-Time Estimation of Rt for Supporting Public-Health Policies Against COVID-19es
dc.typeArtículoes
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