Determinación del peligro y probabilidad de ocurrencia de eventos volcánicos en el volcán Parinacota, región de Arica y Parinacota, Chile
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2021
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es
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Universidad Andrés Bello
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Licencia CC
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Resumen
El Volcán Parinacota de edad Cuaternaria Tardía, corresponde a uno de los volcanes más
activos de los Andes Centrales de Chile con más de 18 Km3 de material erupcionado (Clavero et
al., 2004) cuyo último registro data de hace 290 ± 300 años (Sieber y Simkin, 2002, citado en Saez
et al., 2007).
Dado que el Volcán Parinacota es un volcán activo que posee localidades aledañas, surge
la necesidad de determinar el tipo de evento que se desarrollará ante un nuevo episodio de
inestabilidad y como esto afectará a los centros poblados cercanos. En el presente trabajo se emplea
una adaptación del método de Newhall y Hoblitt (2001) que evalúa la probabilidad de ocurrencia
de los distintos escenarios posibles teniendo en cuenta toda la información bibliográfica existente
por medio de un árbol de eventos para el Volcán Parinacota. De este árbol se desprende que ante
un nuevo episodio de inestabilidad volcánica el escenario más probable consiste en una erupción
de tipo efusiva con un VEI (índice de explosividad volcánica) entre 0-1 que se manifestará en lavas
de composición andesítica extruidas a partir del cono principal, éstas lavas tendrán una extensión
máxima probable de 3 Km. Al ser los escenarios efusivos los más frecuentes y probables del
modelo del árbol de eventos, se genera un mapa semi cuantitativo de peligrosidad de lavas para el
Volcán Parinacota y sus conos adventicios, el cual muestra que no constituyen un riesgo directo
para asentamientos urbanos ubicados en las inmediaciones del volcán.
Tanto el árbol de eventos propuesto para el volcán Parinacota, como el mapa de
peligrosidad, constituyen una primera aproximación a un modelo cuantitativo que evalúe la
ocurrencia de distintas amenazas consideradas como peligros volcánicos en el volcán Parinacota.
The Parinacota Volcano of Late Quaternary age, corresponds to one of the most active volcanoes in the Central Andes of Chile with more than 18 km3 of erupted material (Clavero et al., 2004) whose last record dates from 290 ± 300 years ago (Sieber and Simkin, 2002, cited in Saez et al., 2007). Given that the Parinacota Volcano is an active volcano that has neighboring towns, the need arises to determine the type of event that will take place in the face of a new episode of instability and how this will affect nearby populated centers. In the present work an adaptation of the method of Newhall and Hoblitt (2001) is used that evaluates the probability of occurrence of the different possible scenarios taking into account all the existing bibliographic information through an event tree for the Parinacota Volcano. From this tree it can be deduced that in the face of a new episode of volcanic instability, the most likely scenario consists of an effusive eruption with a VEI (volcanic explosivity index) between 0-1 that will manifest itself in lavas of andesitic composition extruded from the cone. Mainly, these lavas will have a probable maximum extension of 3 km. As the effusive scenarios are the most frequent and probable of the event tree model, a semi-quantitative map of lava danger is generated for the Parinacota Volcano and its adventitious cones, the which shows that they do not constitute a direct risk for urban settlements located around the volcano. Both the tree of events proposed for the Parinacota volcano, and the hazard map, constitute a first approximation to a quantitative model that evaluates the occurrence of different threats considered as volcanic hazards in the Parinacota volcano.
The Parinacota Volcano of Late Quaternary age, corresponds to one of the most active volcanoes in the Central Andes of Chile with more than 18 km3 of erupted material (Clavero et al., 2004) whose last record dates from 290 ± 300 years ago (Sieber and Simkin, 2002, cited in Saez et al., 2007). Given that the Parinacota Volcano is an active volcano that has neighboring towns, the need arises to determine the type of event that will take place in the face of a new episode of instability and how this will affect nearby populated centers. In the present work an adaptation of the method of Newhall and Hoblitt (2001) is used that evaluates the probability of occurrence of the different possible scenarios taking into account all the existing bibliographic information through an event tree for the Parinacota Volcano. From this tree it can be deduced that in the face of a new episode of volcanic instability, the most likely scenario consists of an effusive eruption with a VEI (volcanic explosivity index) between 0-1 that will manifest itself in lavas of andesitic composition extruded from the cone. Mainly, these lavas will have a probable maximum extension of 3 km. As the effusive scenarios are the most frequent and probable of the event tree model, a semi-quantitative map of lava danger is generated for the Parinacota Volcano and its adventitious cones, the which shows that they do not constitute a direct risk for urban settlements located around the volcano. Both the tree of events proposed for the Parinacota volcano, and the hazard map, constitute a first approximation to a quantitative model that evaluates the occurrence of different threats considered as volcanic hazards in the Parinacota volcano.
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Proyecto de título (Geólogo)
Palabras clave
Vulcanismo, Análisis del Riesgo Volcánico, Chile, Región de Arica y Parinacota